A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
Les modèles économiques de l’agriculture :
un nouveau banc d’essai
  Editorial  
 

The economic models of agriculture: a new test bench



Momagri Editorial Board




Economic simulation models currently play an important role in market analysis and economic policy, particularly in agriculture. They are used to make projections on quantities and prices in the medium term, but also they try to forecast the impact, positive or negative, of an economic policy on the functioning of markets and the welfare of individuals. As such, they enjoy a certain prestige among public and private decision-makers, as they offer a scientific approach to complex policy issues.

However, the retrospective analysis of their results such as their inability to have foreseen the 2007/08 crisis raises questions about their reliability. The detailed analysis of their fundamentals indeed shows that they tend to ignore the agricultural sector’s principal specificities, such as the burden of uncertainty in economic decisions and the low mobility of the production factors mobilized.

This observation was the starting point for the creation of the momagri model, which aims to overcome these limitations by showing that it is possible to establish a model based on alternative hypotheses, responding to the rules of risk model specialists and which lead to very different results in terms of policy recommendations.

The purpose of this report is not to question the scientific precision of the existing models, which are usually the result of many years of work by highly skilled teams; this is not to question the very principle of macroeconomic modelling and the necessary use of simplifying assumptions it entails. It aims to give non-specialists an analysis of the scope of the assumptions used in the models in order to position the added value and limitations specific to the Momagri model.

Enjoy reading!


To read the full Momagri report “economic models of agriculture: a new test bench” click here


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Paris, 15 December 2018