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momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
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China and Brazil: more dependence on the United States



Frédéric Hénin, Editor in Chief, Terre-net


Article published in Terre-net Média



In recent months, the world's largest economy, the United States, has been at the heart of a partial redeployment of the world trade in wheat and coarse grains thanks to an increase in export capacity.


In South America, Brazil is reviewing its procurement strategy by buying wheat from the Mercosur region (Uruguay) but particularly from the United States (3 Mt already contracted) and Canada. Argentina is no longer the cornerstone of the Mercosur region from which their Brazilian neighbours buy. Over the past several years, Argentinian farmers have stopped producing wheat in favour of barley and soybean as second crop. And this year, the bad weather with late rains could further reduce production potential and therefore that available for export. According FranceAgrimer, only 4.5 million tons of Brazilian wheat could be sold, mainly in Brazil, against nearly 11 million two years earlier.

IN EUROPE, A GRAIN POOL

In Asia, year after year, China is establishing itself as a major importer of grain. The United States has multiplied its shipments of wheat by ten since the beginning of the campaign compared to last year at the same time. The People's Republic has bought 4.1 million tonnes of wheat of which 2.4 Mt of High red winter.

On the European continent, there is a new commercial organization for wheat export emerging with the establishment of a “grain pool” for Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan that could spread to Belarus and other satellite republics of the former Soviet Union. The objective is to have an agreement on prices and taxes for wheat exports to avoid a price war, says FranceAgrimer in their last economic report in November.


China's growing presence in the markets for coarse grains

In addition to wheat, China is also increasing its imports of coarse grains and derived products intended for animal feed. According to the latest estimates by the Cic in a report by FranceAgrimer, China could acquire 7 million tonnes of maize, mainly American, during the campaign. Last year, purchases were only 3.7 Mt and in 2008/2009 only 0.1 Mt.

The Middle Kingdom has already imported more maize DDGs since the beginning of the year than in 2012. With a delivered 2.2 Mt, it became the largest importer of this co-product derived from the distillation of grain into ethanol, before Mexico.

The People's Republic also became the second largest importer of sorghum behind Mexico. Their production of low quality and quantity is not sufficient to meet the demands for industry and animal feed but also for the production of Baijiu, the alcoholic beverage favoured by consumers. By importing 2.1 million tons of sorghum seeds by the end of the campaign, for which China is willing to pay full price, the second largest economy will be alone responsible for a 21% increase in world trade. By late October, 1.2 Mt of sorghum will have been delivered.


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Paris, 18 December 2018