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It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
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2015/2016 world wheat production
With an expected higher crop, France is going its own way



Frédéric Hénin, Editor in Chief, Terre-net


Article published in Terre-net Média



Following a record year in 2014, not a single continent might dodge a declining wheat output in 2015. India might even import several million tons of grain in the next few months. In Europe, France, Italy and Spain are standing out from their neighbors thanks to extremely promising forecasts.

The threshold of 700 million tons (Mt) of wheat produced in the world will again be reached in the upcoming 2015/2016 crop. Estimated to reach 705 Mt, the global wheat output might be down by two percent compared to 2014/2015 indicates the CIC outlook covered by FranceAgriMer in its latest economic situation report.

Following the absolute record year of 2014 in the world’s five continents, none of them might avoid a lower production during the upcoming harvest. Expected to reach 92 Mt, India’s poor crop might even lead the country to import several million tons of wheat to meet national demand.

According to FranceAgriMer, the major production zones––Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh––were damaged by the season’s unusual climate conditions (floods, wind and hail).

In addition to tapering wheat output, the agricultural analysis firm Agriwatch indicates that processors are also suffering from the poor quality of harvested grains that affects up to 30 percent of volumes.

Production is also expected to be lower in China. The drought had a negative impact on the crop development in a part of the Northern large plains. “The acreage might be the same as last year’s, but yields seems to be lower than expected. Production is expected to reach 118 Mt, a six percent decline from 2014/2015.”


RUSSIA RETURNING TO GLOBAL MARKETS

In the Black Sea area, the crops are looking good, provided no heat wave comes to disturb the ripening of spikes. Specifically, the Russian government might, in the next few weeks, remove the import tax that was enacted on February 1, 2015 in response to the falling ruble and soaring wheat prices on the national market. In other words, this heralds Russia’s return to global wheat markets for next summer.

In Ukraine, he wheat crop could also be plentiful since farmers have diminished the corn acreages that were too expensive to sow. The falling hryvnia has raised the cost of inputs and made the price of imported seeds too expensive.

According to the CIC, Romania should “harvest 5.8 Mt of wheat this year, a 10 percent decline but slightly higher than the five-year average (6.5 Mt).”

Such drop is similar to that reported in almost all the countries of the European Union. With yields closer to normal, the crop might reach 142 Mt of soft wheat; a four percent drop compared to 20-14/2015 says FranceAgriMer.


LARGE REDUCTIONS FOR OUR EUROPEAN NEIGHBORS

Germany expects 25.7 Mt against 27.7 Mt in 2014/2015, a seven percent decline (source: Archer Daniels Midland). For the UK, “the CICAR expects a 2015/2015 wheat output of 15 Mt, a ten percent drop compared to the previous harvest but still higher than the five-year average (14.4 Mt)” indicates FranceAgriMer based on the forecasting data provided by the forecasting firm ADAS. And Poland might only produce 11.5 Mt, a nine percent drop compared to 2014/2015.

Such forecasts will impact these nations’ export abilities at the European level as well as with non-member nations.

By contrast, France, Italy and Spain are expecting larger a wheat output than last year.

The fact is that wheat areas have been increased throughout France this year again, to the detriment of corn and barley fields. With 5.2 million hectares (12.85 million acres) planted, “we must go back to the 1936/1937 harvest to report a greater amount.”



2015 harvest: A record is expected in Morocco

The crop outlook is promising in Morocco due to adequate rainfalls. Out of the 11 Mt of grain currently harvested, 5.5 Mt of wheat and 2.2 Mt of hard wheat might be produced. The Ministry of Agriculture might initiate import taxes to encourage domestic trade, and thus deter operators to get supply from foreign markets.



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Paris, 19 December 2018