A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

The long-term projections for world agriculture from the United States

February 23, 2015


As it does each year, the USDA has issued an overview on the United States agriculture for the next ten years. This year’s projections cover the 2015-2024 period, and report on the outlook beyond the American borders to address the future key trends concerning global agriculture.

Among the “major strengths and uncertainties concerning future agricultural markets” for the 2015-2024 years, the USDA has identified1:
    - A global economic growth to average 3.5 percent, an increase over the previous years, driven by the emerging (India and China) and developing economies. Conversely, the USDA is more pessimistic regarding the fate of the European Union economies, whose growth rate should remain weak (1.9 percent).

    - The continued weakness of the dollar that will boost the country’s agricultural exports––a crucial component of the US agricultural strategy––and increasing oil prices starting in 2016, which will impact agricultural production costs.

    - International geopolitical tensions (the Russia/Ukraine crisis and Russian embargo among others) that should not have a long-term impact on the agricultural balance of the nations involved. As far as Russia is concerned, it will continue to conduct its stop-and-go policy to curb its reliance on agricultural imports.

    - Agricultural prices will decline for a few years and then rise again, as we will see a growth in global demand for agricultural products, the global agricultural production growing at a more robust pace than the world population growth, and rising agricultural exports from key exporting nations (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, United States and the European Union). And let’s not forget the emerging agricultural powers that will also attempt to position themselves in that arena.
While these projections should not be contradicted, they must be treated with caution. As USDA indicates, these projections are presuming that no endogenous or exogenous shock will affect global agricultural markets. Yet, agricultural markets are subject to multiple risks, whose harmful consequences on price stability are aggravated by their unregulated liberalization.

The sole production factors are therefore not enough to explain the changes occurring in agricultural markets, since beyond the permanent threat of climate or geopolitical hazards, agricultural markets have become complex anticipation markets where the psychology of players is as important as the hyper-volatility.

However, these new projections are confirming a rising trend of concentration of production factors in some geographic zones having comparative and competitive advantages. Above They also confirm the formation of a new geopolitical plate tectonics around the growing powers of emerging nations––the BRICS in particular––and around developing countries, which should in fact play an increasing role in the global economy.

1 A detailed article concerning the Report is available from WikiAgri.


Page Header
Paris, 18 December 2018