A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

The importance of establishing a model for world food stocks

October 6, 2014

The world will produce 2.5 billion tonnes of grain in 2014 pushing global stocks up to their highest levels in 15 years. “Higher forecasts for wheat production are due to better yields than expected in China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States,” says the FAO. Consequently, global grain stocks will be complete by the close of the 2015 campaign with 616 million tonnes, 12 million tonnes more than previous forecasts.

This latest announcement is an opportunity for remembering the importance of stocks for food security and the debate that surrounds it. Within international organizations such as the FAO or the WTO where the policy for public stocks hinders future Doha Round negotiations, as well as at the regional level in Africa where the food crisis of 2008 hastened the implementation of a public stock policy as an essential mechanism for regulating markets and ensuring food security.

Yet, despite the importance of stocks on agricultural markets and the persistence of price volatility coupled with the extreme opacity and the inadequacy of available information, to date, there is no computable general equilibrium model that has established an endogenous model for stocks.

Based on this evidence, momagri is developing a new model for stocking and destocking, which will improve the understanding of the impact of stocks on volatility and vice versa, as well as regulatory measures that can be taken to limit this impact on producers, such as countercyclical instruments and market interventions.

Accordingly, the objective of this model is to establish a model for three different types of stocking/destocking behaviours for:
    - Private stocks,
    - Public Stocks,
    - Involuntary stocks
We will soon be publishing our initial estimates and conclusions.

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Paris, 26 June 2019