A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

The health crisis in China:
What impact on global agricultural markets?

April 19, 2013


As of April 19, seventeen people had died in China after having been infected by the H7N9 virus and new carriers were still being registered by mid-April. Hundreds of thousands of poultry have been slaughtered and several poultry markets closed. The WHO seeks to be reassuring and, for the time being, rules out a risk of pandemics.

Beyond the health issue, the crisis has an impact on the global poultry sector, and acts as the match that can kindle soaring agricultural prices. We know that these prices are not only extremely volatile but also unpredictable and subject to the mindset of market players––farmers, investors, speculators and consumers…

Prices of some agricultural commodities, such as soybeans, recorded a decline due to the likely shrinking of Chinese demand. In addition, the health crisis will have a negative impact on the country’s soybean imports as long as health authorities do not have the situation under control. Lastly, as far as consumers are concerned––especially European consumers, in spite of the fact that EU’s poultry imports come mostly from Brazil––the alarming scope of the crisis cannot be eliminated.

The epizootic threat poses a major exogenous risk for global agriculture. And concerns are all the more serious when global agricultural markets are pressured by both exogenous risks and endogenous dangers, which act as catalysts for epizootic or climate crises.

Beyond health safety considerations such as traceability and controls, the crisis could eventually be the symptom of structural failures of the 21st century trade––hyper-volatility, excessive speculation and market opacity––and their harmful impact on global food security. While liberalized and globalized trade is essential, especially to circumvent financial trends or hedge against protectionist temptations, they must be regulated and transparent. Yet, it would be futile to pursue such objective without a comprehensive cooperation and dialogue between all members of the international community. Pooling the efforts involved thus seems imperative to regulate and lessen the risk of exporting health, climate or political crises, whether we are dealing with an epidemic in China, an embargo issued in Russia or a drought in the United States.
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Paris, 18 December 2018