A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

Rethinking models: a major challenge
of the twenty-first century

April 20, 2015

From 8th to 11th April the sixth INET (Institute for New Economic Thinking) conference established by George Soros in 2010 was held in Paris at the headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in response the 2007/2008 economic crisis. It was attended by many economists of all stripes – particularly Thomas Piketty and Yanis Varoufakis, but also six winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics: James Mirrlees (1996), Amartya Sen (1998), James Heckman (2000), George Akerlof and Michael Spence (2001), Joseph Stiglitz (2001).

An audience of eminent personalities with a vast and ambitious objective: to shake the edifice of theoretical certitudes that are disconnected from reality and to question the dogmas that have stilted thinking and business models for the past 20 years. Since its origin, INET has worked hard to develop solutions to the challenges of the twenty-first century based on these three critical founding assumptions:
    - Markets are not self-regulating,
    - Free markets do not spontaneously lead to a balance,
    - Markets are not efficient,
Contrary to claims made by “market fundamentalists” and to borrow a phrase from George Soros, markets are not only inherently unstable and uncertain but are subject to complex expectations as well as external and internal risks, making the dogma of the “natural equilibrium price” totally obsolete. For Robert Johnson, INET president, in this configuration, “any model designed to predict or find a stable equilibrium is doomed to fail”.

Conclusion: Experts must incorporate into their thinking the fact that the improbable can happen, even several times, and draw all the consequences in terms of modelling. It is therefore important to consider uncertainty as the opening assumption that determines the quality of the results of simulation models and expert opinion, and not as a result that justifies forecast errors and diagnostics.

This sixth INET conference and its very existence finally confirms the importance of modelling new market realities (that are expressly those of agricultural markets) and the necessary challenging of traditional models that have guided liberalization policies for the past 20 years without realizing the harm they have caused.

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Paris, 18 December 2018