A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

Global agricultural markets: What challenges for 2016?

January 11, 2016

The Russian embargo, the livestock farming crisis, significant tensions on field crop prices, the Chinese economic slowdown, climate and geopolitical risks, the challenge in the oil industry and the extreme price volatility… In 2015, global agricultural markets were not spared by both endogenous and exogenous risks.

And some of these tensions will probably continue in 2016.

While the core of current agricultural markets is not only their intrinsic instability but also their unpredictability, several trends should continue or develop with a more or less strong impact on global agricultural markets. Among these we note:
  • The continuation of the livestock crisis in Europe. In fact, tensions on prices are expected to continue, or even increase. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that close to one beef, dairy or pig farming operation out of five is on the brink of bankruptcy in France.
  • The maintenance of the Russian embargo, at a time when Moscow just imposed two similar bans against Ukraine and Turkey. The food aid weapon is serving once again as a powerful leverage tool for geopolitical influence.
  • The further slowdown of the Chinese economy, and its impact on global financial markets and on emerging economies, including some experiencing an acute recession, such as Brazil and Russia.
  • An increased volatility of exchange rates with an expected strengthening of the dollar, and a weakening of Latin American and European currencies. “The exchange weapon” is a powerful lever in global international trade, especially regarding agricultural markets.
  • The persistence of climate conditions such as El Nino, which is currently wreaking havoc in California.
Meeting such challenges would not be so complex if the policy responses were adapted to the reality of current agricultural issues. Yet we have no choice but note that due to the mismanagement by some policy makers, agriculture and food security are still suffering from a global investment deficit. In fact, from the unsuitability of the CAP to the continuance of free trade agreements––including the fate they reserve to agriculture––the strategic scope of these two major components of global balance still struggles to be recognized.

Yet now more than ever, farmers worldwide are called to improve their resilience against the extreme volatility of agricultural markets. More than ever before, the continued financialization of these markets, and more globally the uncontrolled free trade, will persist to restrict them without adequate tools or public policies.

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Paris, 20 June 2019