A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

FT Commodities Global Summit “life after the Super cycle”1

April 18, 2016


The fifth edition of the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit was held in Lausanne in Switzerland from 11 - 13 April 2016. This year's edition, “life after the super cycle” refers to the 10 year super cycle that saw high prices and record investments on all commodity markets.

During the program there were discussions on the impact of the Chinese slowdown on commodity prices, worries about the consequences of the Mifid 2 European Directive on certain participants, or the new geopolitical and societal constraints required in oil trading. From Cargill to Gunvor, through Rabobank and COFCO Agri, over 400 traders, bankers, economists, investors and representatives of hedge funds met to take stock of current and future trends in commodity markets.

Though Igor Sechin, chairman of the Summit and the head of the Russian oil group Rosneft predicted an increase in oil prices in two years2, for the time being the pressure is on with regards the drop in agricultural commodity prices due to overproduction and the slowdown in emerging economies.

The giant Cargill made particular reference to the potential impact on corn prices due to changes in the Chinese agricultural policy. Looking to make its corn production attractive to Chinese buyers since early 2015, China has stated its wish to remove corn from its guaranteed price system (which will continue only for wheat and rice), and support producers through aid, the terms of which have not been announced to date. The aim is clear: switch to soybean production of which China is the world's largest importer and reduce stocks that have accumulated over the past 3 years.

For Cargill, there is a “50% chance” that China exports corn in the coming months, either in the form of grain or processed products such as starch or ethanol3. A strategy that will have consequences on international prices and other major producers, chiefly the United States.

For the Louis Dreyfus Group, massive stock reserves continue to maintain pressure on world agricultural prices4. Also, they all reiterated that the risks to the stability of world markets will remain a central factor in 2016 and that there is little evidence of improvement in market conditions for agricultural commodities.

Finally, given the conclusions drawn at this summit, faced with the risk of global deflation and the entry into recession of raw material based economies, it is more urgent than ever to initiate the next step in the reconstruction of world commodity market governance, especially agricultural, and particularly in the context of the G20.


1 Topic of the Summit 2016
2 Rosneft group’s press release (in russian) http://www.rosneft.ru/news/today/12042016.html
3 https://next.ft.com/content/5fdc5bfa-0260-11e6-af1d-c47326021344
4 http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-corn-stockpiles-expected-to-climb-1460480738


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