A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

2016: Towards a new “currency war”?

December 7, 2015

“Through 2016, foreign exchange rates will have a bigger influence on agri-commodity markets than ever before,” declares Rabobank. The Dutch financial institution anticipates more volatile exchange rates, with an expected stronger dollar as well as lower Latino-American and European currencies.

Rabobank also reveals that Brazilian agriculture should benefit the most from “the currency war”, with the weak real boosting the competitiveness of its exports in soybeans, corn, coffee and sugar. Elsewhere, weakness in the Ukrainian hryvnia and the Russian ruble should make grain exports from these two regions even more competitive.

As far as the United States is concerned, the strong dollar will continue to limit the US market share of global agricultural exports, while internal stocks increase. As for China, the potential for further devaluations of the renminbi could lower the country’s imports, which are so crucial to global trade.

As shown, the monetary policies of these various agricultural powers have a considerable impact on geo-economic and geo-strategic balances. At a time when the erratic fluctuations of currency parity represent an enduring trend––especially since 2007/2008––the “exchange weapon” has proved to be a power lever in international trade. The Rabobank declaration is after all nothing more than the confirmation of the given priority to national stimulus through currencies, which can be likened to monetary protectionism.

Yet, using monetary policy and its impact on international trade is given very little consideration by the major international organizations, such as the WTO or in the framework of the transatlantic partnership talks. In fact, exchange rates are not included as indirect support factors in a country’s competitiveness in agriculture, and thus lead to distort the reality of agricultural support.

To correct this situation, momagri has assessed them in its Global Support to Agricultural Production and Food (SGPAA) indicator, together with interest rates which, depending on their levels, can considerably alter the amount of a nation’s and farmers’ agricultural debt.

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Paris, 14 December 2018